Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B8
0xb8ee…9e81
sports · 350 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,646 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13,866 · open +$2,470
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44,556
Realized−$13,866
Unrealized+$2,470
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses117 / 407
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$250
Open positions120
Markets (closed)524 / 350
History coverage12d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day279.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 120 History 524 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,835
7 days−$12,477
14 days−$13,866
30 days−$13,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 67¢ 82¢ $15,409 $18,980 +$3,571 (+23%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 67¢ 56¢ $6,587 $5,447 −$1,140 (-17%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 79¢ 98¢ $1,974 $2,426 +$452 (+23%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $717 $1,786 +$1,069 (+149%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 62¢ 100¢ $985 $1,575 +$590 (+60%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $886 $1,478 +$592 (+67%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $996 $1,374 +$377 (+38%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 99¢ $1,006 $1,290 +$284 (+28%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 87¢ 53¢ $1,945 $1,184 −$761 (-39%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 100¢ $339 $999 +$660 (+195%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 84¢ 100¢ $792 $938 +$146 (+18%)
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Yes 38¢ 78¢ $408 $836 +$428 (+105%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 44¢ 100¢ $354 $808 +$454 (+128%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 71¢ 75¢ $675 $713 +$38 (+6%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 62¢ 84¢ $497 $669 +$172 (+35%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 92¢ 88¢ $430 $410 −$20 (-5%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 51¢ 69¢ $254 $345 +$91 (+36%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 39¢ 72¢ $163 $301 +$138 (+85%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 100¢ $113 $224 +$111 (+98%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $955 $212 −$743 (-78%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $116 $205 +$89 (+77%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? No 87¢ 100¢ $173 $198 +$25 (+14%)
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $164 $149 −$16 (-9%)
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $83 $118 +$34 (+41%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 13 $16 −$18 -115%
Will Jordan McCullough win American Idol Season 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $293 −$293 -100%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $368 −$375 -102%
Will Taylor Pendrith finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -41%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Jun 13 $105 −$151 -144%
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standi Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $466 −$536 -115%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 55 on the R Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 13 $151 −$152 -101%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 13 $849 −$849 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Paysandu SC end in a draw? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Jun 13 $64 −$64 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $2,730 −$2,730 -100%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parl Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will "THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) win Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Jun 13 $6 −$7 -112%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Cindy Burbank be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Nebraska? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 13 $27 −$24 -87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Jun 13 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" in March? Jun 13 $4 −$5 -107%
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$661
sports 31% +$6,660
world 11% +$2,429
crypto 10% −$283
politics 7% −$1,122
culture 1% −$25
weather 0% −$61
economics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 91¢ $7 21m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $43 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 84¢ $14 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 73¢ $9 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 73¢ $25 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 58¢ $16 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 87¢ $87 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 33¢ $25 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 21m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 21m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $10 23m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $4 23m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 23m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 87¢ $21 23m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 32m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 35m
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 456 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 17% -30.8%
≤30d 524 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 19% -30.7%
≤90d 524 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 19% -30.7%
all 524 -49.8% -54.6% 22% 19% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover279.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.6% 19% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.9% 14% -37.3%
15% -62.9% 11% -43.4%
20% -66.5% 9% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,556.06 · official $44,554.29 (match) · 3500 history records