Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8ef…2897 weather 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-15%) realized −$97 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%4W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$88
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% −$112
politics 40% −$25
other 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -27.5% -34.4% 10% 6% -26.3%
≤30d 53 -37.4% -43.4% 8% 6% -28.2%
≤90d 53 -37.4% -43.4% 8% 6% -28.2%
all 53 -37.4% -43.4% 8% 6% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.4% 6% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.8% 6% -35.1%
15% -53.8% 6% -41.4%
20% -58.3% 6% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Yes 67¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $127 −$12 -10%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $42 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $14 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $16 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $3 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +228%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -34%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $22 −$19 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 −$5 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 −$14 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $17 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -80%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$5 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 70¢ $37 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 35h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.59 · official $4.59 (match) · 526 history records