Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B8 0xb8f2…96c4 politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 40% −$19
sports 6% −$20
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -3.0% -12.2% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 131 -5.0% -14.1% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×7.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage116d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $276 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $249 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $256 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $473 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $235 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $267 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $204 −$2 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $279 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $231 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $38 4h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 37h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 21d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 22d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $249 26d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $249 28d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $208 29d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $208 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $265 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $265 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $268 32d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $268 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 33d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 33d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $246 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records