Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8f4…f04c weather 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$436 (+6%) realized +$555 · open −$119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%56W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$309
14 days+$309
30 days+$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.4% -12.6% 55% 55% +28.7%
≤30d 34 +34.1% +21.3% 53% 44% +19.8%
≤90d 118 -4.7% -13.7% 47% 36% -3.3%
all 118 -4.7% -13.7% 47% 36% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 36% -3.3%
10% -22.0% 25% -12.6%
15% -29.5% 21% -21.0%
20% -36.4% 17% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$29 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$555
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses56 / 62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage62d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? Yes 57¢ 92¢ $233 $370 +$138 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? No 48¢ 92¢ $21 $41 +$19 (+91%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? No 80¢ 8¢ $89 $9 −$80 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? Yes 57¢ 8¢ $45 $6 −$39 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $89 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $102 +$191 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $32 +$18 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $64 −$52 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 27? Jun 26 $47 −$45 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $246 +$365 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $48 +$18 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $152 −$149 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $166 −$51 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $82 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $199 +$91 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 +$244 +1577%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $54 −$54 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $59 +$87 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $127 +$107 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $65 −$64 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $148 +$55 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 30? May 31 $39 +$60 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $43 +$63 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $34 −$34 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $73 +$45 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? May 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $49 −$48 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 27? May 28 $45 +$84 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $35 −$20 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? May 27 $65 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 26? May 27 $101 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $182 −$63 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $270 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25? May 26 $123 +$21 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $83 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $90 −$78 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? May 25 $264 −$21 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 72¢ $142 30m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 71¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 34m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 80¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 80¢ $89 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? BUY Yes 90¢ $89 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.60 · official $423.67 (match) · 965 history records