Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B8 0xb8fb…4af5 weather 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-9%) realized −$316 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%87W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$23
14 days−$250
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$215
weather 23% −$130
sports 22% −$52
world 12% +$54
crypto 4% −$56
politics 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.7% -10.1% 50% 45% -5.7%
≤30d 185 -9.9% -18.4% 40% 29% -20.7%
≤90d 222 -9.0% -17.6% 39% 29% -20.2%
all 222 -9.0% -17.6% 39% 29% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 29% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 21% -27.8%
15% -32.7% 16% -34.8%
20% -39.3% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$316
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses87 / 135
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 224
History coverage45d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $44 +$7 +17%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$5 -23%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$9 -58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 +$4 +27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$6 +529%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $12 +$15 +128%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $17 −$2 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 −$3 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -86%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $53 +$36 +68%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $20 −$3 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $24 −$2 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $64 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $42 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $3 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $22 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 73¢ $1 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 27¢ $1 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 28¢ $0 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 70¢ $2 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 30¢ $0 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 50¢ $0 33m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 51¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 51¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 54¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 54¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 56¢ $1 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $1 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 56¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 57¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 39¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 31¢ $0 34m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 72¢ $1 48m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 28¢ $1 48m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $1 49m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $1 50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 34¢ $1 50m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $1 53m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 48¢ $1 54m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 37¢ $1 54m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 61¢ $1 55m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 36¢ $1 56m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 66¢ $1 57m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 93¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1392 history records