Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B8 0xb8fe…91cf weather 259 markets active 1d ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$51 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%102W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$41
14 days+$1
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$72
other 3% −$22
world 2% +$19
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -30.5% -37.2% 29% 29% -21.7%
≤30d 244 -11.2% -19.7% 41% 39% -13.3%
≤90d 245 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 38% -13.2%
all 250 -11.0% -19.5% 41% 39% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 39% -13.0%
10% -27.2% 34% -21.4%
15% -34.2% 30% -29.0%
20% -40.7% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses102 / 148
Open positions9
Markets (closed)250 / 259
History coverage128d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+117%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+166%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$9 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$10 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$19 +373%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +120%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.51 · official $16.52 (match) · 386 history records