Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb901…0440 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 23% +$1
politics 14% −$3
economics 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 12% -9.3%
all 43 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage380d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $64 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Nov 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -47%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $39 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $64 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $34 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $20 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $39 21h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $5 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $10 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $16 28d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $26 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $32 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $31 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $15 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $7 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $42 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $5 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $41 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $9 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $64 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.71 · official $34.71 (match) · 253 history records