Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb902…ec4f finance 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%80W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 48% −$3
sports 30% +$2
other 17% $0
politics 3% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.6% -13.7% 56% 41% -11.8%
≤30d 50 -0.1% -9.6% 66% 32% -9.0%
≤90d 111 -2.4% -11.7% 72% 33% -11.9%
all 111 -2.4% -11.7% 72% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 33% -11.9%
10% -20.2% 19% -20.3%
15% -27.9% 15% -28.0%
20% -35.0% 14% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses80 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)111 / 129
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Snowflake (SNOW) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Salesforce (CRM) beat quarterly earnings? May 27 $1 $0 +4%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Deere & Co (DE) beat quarterly earnings? May 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $3 $0 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 89¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 96¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 6h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $1 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $1 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $1 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $1 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $1 6h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $1 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $1 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 46¢ $1 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.84 · official $25.84 (match) · 252 history records