Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb902…06d8 crypto 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,882 (+16%) realized +$3,808 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%77W / 77L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,103
7 days+$3,350
14 days+$3,406
30 days+$3,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3,826
crypto 39% −$849
other 0% +$8
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +17.4% +6.2% 61% 55% +12.6%
≤30d 35 +16.6% +5.5% 60% 54% +12.7%
≤90d 44 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 52% +11.9%
all 154 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 48% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 48% +2.2%
10% -21.0% 44% -7.6%
15% -28.6% 40% -16.5%
20% -35.6% 34% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$94 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$2,074
Realized+$3,808
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses77 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage132d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 58¢ $1,000 $1,083 +$83 (+8%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4,369 +$79 +2%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,117 −$1,100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$17 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $896 +$979 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,030 +$1,966 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $129 +$27 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$48 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $305 +$426 +139%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $305 +$333 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $305 +$426 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score AND Austria to score first vs. Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$251 +123%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$426 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 +$537 +132%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $204 +$279 +137%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$16 -30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$175 +86%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$231 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $98 +$105 +107%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 01 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 23 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 23 $70 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $100 +$32 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 +$13 +45%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 24 $100 +$84 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 05 $150 −$148 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$84 +84%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 24 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 24 $167 +$225 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $1,130 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $3,318 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3,353 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $45 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $120 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 18h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,875 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,996 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $896 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $156 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,073.90 · official $2,073.90 (match) · 457 history records