Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb902…10c0 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$550 (-8%) realized −$590 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%169W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$320
14 days−$271
30 days−$374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$11
other 20% −$381
politics 7% −$57
crypto 5% −$40
world 2% −$57
tech 2% +$63
weather 1% −$40
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -10.7% -19.2% 30% 29% -21.6%
≤30d 141 -13.3% -21.5% 28% 27% -19.8%
≤90d 368 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -17.6%
all 368 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 44% -17.6%
10% -25.4% 40% -25.5%
15% -32.6% 30% -32.7%
20% -39.2% 19% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized−$590
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses169 / 199
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions39
Markets (closed)368 / 407
History coverage92d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $52 $99 +$47 (+90%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $82 $92 +$11 (+13%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 60¢ $41 $60 +$20 (+48%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+30%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 56¢ 100¢ $22 $40 +$18 (+78%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+22%)
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+52%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $24 +$5 (+23%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+18%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 36¢ 38¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+95%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+57%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$31 +104%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $32 +$47 +146%
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$28 +98%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$11 -31%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -22%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Ariana Grande feature Billie Eilish on Petal? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -20%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$59 +188%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +178%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Pedro Porro be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$64 +183%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$53 +178%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 +$28 +55%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 +$24 +31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $10 +$18 +186%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $29 −$5 -16%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$5 +19%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $15 −$12 -84%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -74%
Will Arthur Theate be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 -55%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -36%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $13 −$2 -12%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Nathan Aké be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Deniz Undav be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Antonio Rüdiger be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 14 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $50 −$26 -51%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $22 −$9 -42%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $23 1h
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $32 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 67¢ $1 26h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 67¢ $33 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 30h
Will Alexandra Eala win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 88¢ $39 36h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 90¢ $40 36h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) SELL Eala 99¢ $56 36h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 36¢ $23 37h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 36¢ $9 37h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 94¢ $38 37h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 50¢ $0 37h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 50¢ $16 37h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 50¢ $11 37h
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 50¢ $1 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 46¢ $18 41h
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 42h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 42h
Will Ariana Grande feature Billie Eilish on Petal? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 42h
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 43h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $29 43h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $31 44h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 47h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.21 · official $861.21 (match) · 1105 history records