Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B9 0xb905…1640 weather 1101 markets active 20h ago coverage 174d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 173d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,381 (-4%) realized −$9,560 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate91%991W / 103L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% −$1,856
other 9% +$1,595
world 5% −$781
crypto 3% +$391
tech 3% +$356
politics 2% +$928
sports 1% +$1,290
finance 1% −$629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 3% -7.4%
≤30d 329 +1.5% -8.1% 97% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 732 -6.7% -15.6% 88% 6% -15.3%
all 1094 -1.6% -11.0% 91% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -9.1%
10% -19.5% 5% -17.8%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$140 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$1,874
Realized−$9,560
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses991 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1094 / 1101
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $901 $978 +$77 (+9%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $543 $642 +$100 (+18%)
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $116 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 95¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $74 +$11 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $41 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $70 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 16 $80 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $66 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 14 $97 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $314 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $20 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $100 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $74 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $100 32h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $6 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 43h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $41 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $59 45h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $41 45h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $64 45h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $100 45h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $40 45h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $30 45h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,874.27 · official $1,874.27 (match) · 3500 history records