Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:15:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb907…539a other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,423 (-23%) realized −$1,347 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%19W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$471
14 days−$1,133
30 days−$1,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$1,221
sports 26% −$190
crypto 1% −$50
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +16.0% +5.0% 28% 25% -23.7%
≤30d 90 -15.7% -23.7% 21% 19% -33.2%
≤90d 90 -15.7% -23.7% 21% 19% -33.2%
all 90 -15.7% -23.7% 21% 19% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 19% -33.2%
10% -31.0% 19% -39.6%
15% -37.7% 19% -45.4%
20% -43.8% 19% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$43 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$1,347
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses19 / 71
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage321d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $130 +$180 +139%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$63 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $715 −$401 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $302 −$298 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $81 −$79 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $82 −$80 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$3 -9%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $51 −$45 -90%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$38 -75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$46 +91%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 −$64 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $103 +$5 +5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$3 -12%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$314 +613%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 +$229 +446%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$3 -5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $261 −$5 -2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $81 +$50 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$21 -21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$46 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$11 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $325 −$216 -66%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England ( Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $101 −$13 -13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$2 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $138 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 33¢ $51 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $310 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $294 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $305 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $152 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $150 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 21¢ $28 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.11 · official $136.61 · 190 history records