Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb907…34d7 world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$14
other 21% −$1
sports 18% +$1
economics 10% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 33 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 58 -0.6% -10.0% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage318d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $81 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $185 −$7 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $158 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $220 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $71 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $147 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $76 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $235 +$3 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 28 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $78 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $83 −$5 -6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $684 −$2 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $824 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $622 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $622 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 16 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $41 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 07 $34 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 07 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $73 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $39 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $39 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $3 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $30 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $20 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $65 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $30 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $16 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $72 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $72 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $79 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $81 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $74 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $74 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $30 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $75 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $59 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.98 · official $72.98 (match) · 206 history records