Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb90a…0555 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$868 (-29%) realized −$868 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$889
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -58.7% -62.7% 19% 6% -36.2%
≤30d 16 -58.7% -62.7% 19% 6% -36.2%
≤90d 16 -58.7% -62.7% 19% 6% -36.2%
all 16 -58.7% -62.7% 19% 6% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.7% 6% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here -66.2% 6% -42.3%
15% -69.5% 6% -47.9%
20% -72.5% 6% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$80 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $510 −$16 -3%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $580 −$154 -26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $530 +$10 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $460 +$10 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $550 −$550 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $70 +$130 +186%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $394 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $54 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $104 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $50 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $284 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $426 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $580 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $419 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $1 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $54 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $1 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $2 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $33 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $470 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $58 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records