Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb90f…ea7a sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,308 (+21%) realized +$4,318 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%86W / 82L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$405
7 days+$2,503
14 days+$3,062
30 days+$3,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$4,484
other 8% −$225
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +84.7% +67.1% 47% 47% +52.9%
≤30d 41 +86.2% +68.4% 54% 54% +55.9%
≤90d 105 -10.9% -19.4% 28% 28% -13.6%
all 168 +15.3% +4.3% 51% 50% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 50% +9.8%
10% -5.6% 48% -0.7%
15% -14.8% 37% -10.3%
20% -23.1% 29% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$85 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$890
Realized+$4,318
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses86 / 82
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions12
Markets (closed)168 / 181
History coverage146d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 +$340 +442%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 +$232 +302%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$246 +241%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 +$249 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$50 +197%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$769 +999%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$148 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $609 +$674 +110%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$144 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$256 +168%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $56 +$336 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 +$126 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 +$174 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $203 +$91 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $102 +$255 +250%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $305 +$393 +129%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $101 −$14 -14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $203 −$200 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 30 $102 +$155 +152%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $41 −$40 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $41 +$209 +510%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $222 +$60 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $77 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $77 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $77 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $77 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 26h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 26h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 26h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 29h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 29h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 29h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $133 42h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 43h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 43h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 45h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 45h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.58 · official $889.61 (match) · 410 history records