Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb911…d6d0 sports 587 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,704 (-10%) realized −$1,698 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%277W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$196
14 days−$649
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,362
crypto 28% −$683
other 8% −$348
weather 1% +$23
economics 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 42% -17.3%
≤30d 267 -9.1% -17.8% 42% 39% -20.2%
≤90d 583 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 43% -22.0%
all 583 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 43% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 43% -22.0%
10% -26.0% 37% -29.5%
15% -33.2% 28% -36.3%
20% -39.7% 21% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$1,698
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses277 / 306
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions4
Markets (closed)583 / 587
History coverage59d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$12 +34%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $32 +$4 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $22 −$3 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 −$3 -27%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $30 −$15 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $56 −$56 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$7 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $98 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 −$2 -18%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$7 -71%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $29 +$7 +25%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$17 +166%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$19 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$17 -57%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $20 +$8 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $10 −$5 -51%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $27 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $27 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $20 13h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 9¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 15h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 83¢ $37 15h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 72¢ $32 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 77¢ $13 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 83¢ $20 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 93¢ $22 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $10 19h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 61¢ $19 20h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 42¢ $7 20h
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi SELL Lan Mi 40¢ $16 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $56 20h
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi BUY Lan Mi 76¢ $30 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $10 20h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 21h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? SELL Over 99¢ $16 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 2¢ $0 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 56¢ $10 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.41 · official $41.41 (match) · 1462 history records