Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb912…7e38 crypto 1282 markets active 9h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-2%) realized −$280 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate75%927W / 311L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day58.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$14
14 days+$18
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 63% −$40
crypto 36% −$269
culture 1% +$38
other 0% −$16
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 678 -5.5% -14.5% 84% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 1238 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 15% -11.2%
all 1238 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 15% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 15% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 4% -19.7%
15% -30.2% 1% -27.4%
20% -37.0% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses927 / 311
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1238 / 1282
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 96¢ 93¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? No 97¢ 88¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Yes 37¢ 51¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? No 95¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? No 94¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? No 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? No 98¢ 95¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $51 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $22 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $16 17h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $38 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $15 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 17h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $9 31h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.36 · official $684.36 (match) · 3500 history records