Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb916…906f other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-1%) realized −$67 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%24W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$5
other 31% −$29
politics 8% −$16
crypto 3% +$6
world 2% −$28
finance 2% −$7
tech 1% −$14
culture 1% −$13
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 52 -9.4% -18.0% 8% 2% -16.6%
all 100 -5.3% -14.4% 24% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 8% -10.1%
10% -22.6% 5% -18.7%
15% -30.0% 4% -26.6%
20% -36.9% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses24 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage544d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $17 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $9 $0 -3%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 23 $0 $0 -16%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 23 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $8 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G Jun 23 $3 $0 -11%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $14 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 -25%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $4 $0 -5%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May? May 15 $11 −$8 -72%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 15 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 in May? May 15 $23 −$15 -64%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m? May 15 $50 −$11 -23%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $7 $0 -3%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 15 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 15 $27 $0 -2%
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 15 $23 $0 -2%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 15 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 15 $14 −$3 -23%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e May 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $32 −$3 -8%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $76 in May? May 15 $14 $0 -3%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 15 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Cherlynn Stevenson be the Democratic Nominee for KY-06? May 15 $30 $0 -2%
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 15 $3 −$1 -22%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 15 $32 −$2 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 15 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May? May 15 $4 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 19¢ $9 15m
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 19¢ $9 17m
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 19¢ $0 17m
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 16¢ $0 25m
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 18¢ $0 34m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 34¢ $2 43m
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 50¢ $24 43m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 32¢ $2 48m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 51¢ $26 58m
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 28¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the England vs Ghana BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 28¢ $2 1h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No $4 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 68¢ $33 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 28¢ $3 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 11¢ $5 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 69¢ $33 1h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the England vs G BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.73 · official $15.73 (match) · 386 history records