Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb916…8ace crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$603 (+7%) realized +$603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate72%48W / 19L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$418
other 5% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +6.7% -3.5% 72% 37% -4.0%
≤30d 67 +6.7% -3.5% 72% 37% -4.0%
≤90d 67 +6.7% -3.5% 72% 37% -4.0%
all 67 +6.7% -3.5% 72% 37% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 37% -4.0%
10% -12.7% 30% -13.2%
15% -21.1% 27% -21.6%
20% -28.9% 19% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses48 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage6d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $450 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $450 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $452 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $500 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $456 +$91 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$52 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $150 +$177 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $151 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $91 +$210 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$57 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$59 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $152 +$28 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $172 +$94 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $150 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $151 +$10 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$80 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$65 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$83 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $450 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $469 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $452 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $501 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $529 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $450 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $450 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $547 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $456 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $82 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $160 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $151 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $151 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $150 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $172 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $151 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $301 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $91 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records