Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb918…d693 politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
world 25% −$2
other 23% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 0% -10.4%
all 29 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage308d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $28 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $23 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Aug 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $7 −$1 -10%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bol Aug 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 18 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $25 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $6 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $32 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $27 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $23 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $4 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $16 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $2 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $8 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $19 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $9 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $20 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $31 29d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 89¢ $4 303d
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $37 303d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 303d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 303d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 303d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 303d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 303d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 303d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 303d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.68 · official $28.39 (match) · 89 history records