Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb91b…b42d crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$2
crypto 46% −$2
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -62.2% -65.8% 25% 25% -71.9%
≤30d 32 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 31% -13.8%
≤90d 32 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 31% -13.8%
all 32 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 31% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 31% -13.8%
10% -20.9% 28% -22.0%
15% -28.6% 25% -29.6%
20% -35.6% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 −$2 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +181%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$4 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $2 +$1 +59%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -51%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 24 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +21%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3 $0 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $1 +$2 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 13¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 14¢ $0 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 81¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 41¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 54¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 75¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 6¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL No 3¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 77¢ $2 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $8 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 99¢ $8 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 47¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 30¢ $0 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 59¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.81 · official $1.81 (match) · 104 history records