Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb91b…af31 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,179 (+1%) realized +$1,179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$1,543per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$251
politics 38% −$100
sports 11% +$1,483
culture 4% −$9
world 3% −$6
economics 2% +$1
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +4.3% -5.7% 16% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -7.8% -16.6% 11% 6% -9.3%
all 140 +0.8% -8.8% 19% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 13% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 13% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 12% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,729) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$11 · ×8.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$1,179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,543
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,232 +$2 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,912 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,571 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,585 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $609 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 14 $416 +$5 +1%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $920 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,140 −$6 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $5,310 −$6 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $67 +$49 +73%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $59 +$60 +101%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $712 +$4 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $286 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,595 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 +$73 +86%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,915 −$4 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,934 −$4 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $2,691 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,606 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,536 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $7,943 −$9 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,125 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,528 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $3,366 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,678 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $396 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $210 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $820 45h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $821 47h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $943 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $944 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $790 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $792 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $702 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $703 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $799 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $801 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $608 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $609 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $416 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $767 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $768 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $783 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $784 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $768 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $769 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $919 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $920 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $992 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $993 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $714 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $715 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.30 · official $210.30 (match) · 462 history records