Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
B9 0xb920…1b19 finance 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 215d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,043 (+8%) realized +$5,053 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate51%213W / 204L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$298
14 days+$573
30 days+$2,324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 66% +$3,160
world 14% +$666
other 13% −$100
crypto 4% +$57
sports 1% +$49
politics 1% −$100
culture 0% +$12
tech 0% −$16
weather 0% −$8
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +3.0% -6.8% 41% 29% -5.4%
≤30d 184 +10.3% -0.2% 56% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 389 +21.7% +10.1% 52% 29% -3.5%
all 417 +23.1% +11.4% 51% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 29% -4.0%
10% +0.8% 24% -13.2%
15% -9.0% 19% -21.6%
20% -17.9% 16% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$5,053
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses213 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)417 / 423
History coverage215d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $82 $101 +$20 (+24%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? No 29¢ 26¢ $58 $51 −$7 (-12%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+2%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? No 9¢ 4¢ $41 $17 −$23 (-58%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? Jun 17 $73 +$6 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $365 +$83 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$74 +291%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$29 +64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $83 +$54 +65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$9 -47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$4 -14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$26 +375%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$82 +456%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $117 −$116 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 13 $253 −$46 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $282 +$161 +57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $93 +$126 +136%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $116 −$40 -34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$2 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$54 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $58 +$39 +67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $245 +$24 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$13 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY No 29¢ $58 3m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 14¢ $24 24m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL No 34¢ $37 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $6 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? SELL No 8¢ $13 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $19 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL No 42¢ $19 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 22¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 24¢ $10 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $16 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? SELL No 33¢ $20 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 19¢ $33 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? SELL No 14¢ $3 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $36 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY No 44¢ $84 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? BUY No 12¢ $21 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 56¢ $95 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? SELL Yes 62¢ $139 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $39 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? BUY No 8¢ $25 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $82 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 18¢ $4 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17? BUY No 15¢ $31 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.18 · official $240.38 · 2210 history records