Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb927…c3db world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%27W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 18% +$2
politics 8% +$1
finance 3% −$7
crypto 2% −$7
sports 2% +$13
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 24 -0.5% -10.0% 42% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 45% 0% -9.9%
all 66 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses27 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage485d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $29 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $35 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $67 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $72 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $39 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $37 −$7 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $4 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $2 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 8h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $24 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.38 · official $36.38 (match) · 230 history records