Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb927…a469 politics 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,207 (+1%) realized +$2,207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%31W / 141L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,667per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$37
14 days−$78
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$161
other 39% −$105
sports 14% +$2,374
economics 2% −$7
culture 1% −$4
tech 1% −$3
world 1% −$18
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 57 -3.3% -12.5% 7% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 108 -1.1% -10.5% 6% 4% -9.0%
all 172 +6.1% -4.0% 18% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 12% -8.9%
10% -13.2% 12% -17.6%
15% -21.6% 11% -25.5%
20% -29.3% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$6 · ×16.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$2,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,667
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,827 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $3,820 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $6,055 −$8 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,037 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3,241 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $3,186 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2,459 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,780 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,194 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $5,440 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $6,856 −$8 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,965 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3,305 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,218 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $5,490 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,997 −$7 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,364 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $84 +$62 +73%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,172 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,175 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $48 +$70 +146%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,446 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $443 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $1,057 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $380 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $538 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $277 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $277 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 24h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $202 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $266 47h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $266 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $351 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $351 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $266 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $267 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,530 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,533 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,511 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,513 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,460 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,463 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,665 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,667 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,486 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,488 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,440 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,442 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,547 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,549 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,112 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,113 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,601 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.15 · official $193.15 (match) · 607 history records