Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb928…fa64 sports 853 markets active 0h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$977 (-3%) realized −$980 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%389W / 463L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$261
sports 20% +$13
other 15% −$378
world 7% −$153
politics 3% −$183
tech 2% +$5
weather 2% −$6
economics 1% +$11
finance 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 10% -5.8%
≤30d 31 -43.9% -49.2% 23% 13% -11.3%
≤90d 437 -83.3% -84.9% 4% 3% -32.6%
all 852 -28.5% -35.3% 46% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 36% -12.4%
10% -41.5% 27% -20.8%
15% -47.1% 17% -28.5%
20% -52.3% 11% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$980
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses389 / 463
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)852 / 853
History coverage230d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 852 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $138 $141 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $132 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $144 −$36 -25%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $131 −$1 -1%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $302 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $405 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $140 −$6 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $141 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 28 $141 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 14 $134 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 12 $150 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $138 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $129 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY No 4¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $111 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $108 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 24¢ $144 12d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 14d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 10? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY No 2¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY No 0¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 14d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 62¢ $146 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $146 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 64¢ $152 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.00 · official $141.00 (match) · 1957 history records