Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B9 0xb932…d2de other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,911 (+23%) realized +$3,911 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$949per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$747
7 days+$1,027
14 days+$1,027
30 days+$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$827
politics 29% +$2,743
sports 26% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.8% -3.3% 76% 41% -1.8%
≤30d 17 +6.8% -3.3% 76% 41% -1.8%
≤90d 17 +6.8% -3.3% 76% 41% -1.8%
all 18 +9.5% -0.9% 78% 44% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 44% +10.4%
10% -10.4% 17% -0.1%
15% -19.1% 6% -9.8%
20% -27.0% 6% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,056) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$70 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.46 per $1 lost it wins $14.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,911
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage592d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $707 −$34 -5%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $770 −$38 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,152 +$138 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,189 +$209 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $815 +$185 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $435 +$65 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $828 −$183 -22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,079 +$91 +8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $773 +$212 +27%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $336 +$33 +10%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $456 +$43 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $121 −$25 -20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $436 +$48 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,056 +$143 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $996 +$71 +7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $5,000 +$2,743 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $466 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $94 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $99 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $22 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $92 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 93¢ $148 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 93¢ $466 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 66¢ $122 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 66¢ $122 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $89 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $12 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $5 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $3 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $109 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $163 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $234 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $143 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $60 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $237 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records