Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb93c…7385 sports 59 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,862 (-24%) realized −$2,845 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$2,917
14 days−$2,917
30 days−$2,917
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,898
other 30% −$920
world 6% −$35
crypto 3% +$5
weather 0% −$50
politics 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -7.3% -16.2% 43% 43% -32.8%
≤30d 51 -7.3% -16.2% 43% 43% -32.8%
≤90d 51 -7.3% -16.2% 43% 43% -32.8%
all 51 -7.3% -16.2% 43% 43% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 43% -32.8%
10% -24.2% 43% -39.2%
15% -31.5% 37% -45.1%
20% -38.2% 29% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$221 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized−$2,845
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 59
History coverage13d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $159 +$121 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$298 +291%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,571 −$1,550 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $604 +$175 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $728 −$35 -5%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,762 −$1,734 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 +$510 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $446 +$122 +27%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$16 +57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $795 +$671 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $192 +$53 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $84 +$108 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $26 +$69 +269%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $256 +$209 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$52 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $203 +$189 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $101 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $101 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $102 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $203 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $72 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $159 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $101 18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $101 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1,470 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $692 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $728 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $101 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $101 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 63¢ $28 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 8¢ $28 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $446 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.60 · official $482.63 (match) · 118 history records