Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb93d…62fe crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$135 (-4%) realized −$516 · open +$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%42W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$104
14 days+$98
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$620
sports 6% −$133
crypto 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.4% -36.1% 39% 33% -3.8%
≤30d 79 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 44% -5.3%
≤90d 79 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 44% -5.3%
all 79 -14.1% -22.3% 53% 44% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -5.3%
10% -29.7% 39% -14.4%
15% -36.5% 34% -22.7%
20% -42.8% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,381
Realized−$516
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses42 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage25d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,381 +$381 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $677 +$239 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$19 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$10 -10%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$52 -51%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$71 -70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $80 −$19 -24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $162 +$77 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $177 −$109 -62%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +248%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $916 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $453 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $123 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $98 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $121 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 24h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 58¢ $91 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $47 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $32 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 59¢ $29 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $44 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,381.19 · official $1,381.36 (match) · 165 history records