Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B9 0xb93e…e383 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,013 (+1%) realized +$1,012 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 118L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,316per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,434
politics 42% −$99
sports 7% −$463
tech 1% −$3
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% +$114
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -6.8% -15.6% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 92 +0.0% -9.5% 8% 3% -9.6%
all 149 +2.0% -7.7% 21% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 13% -9.1%
10% -16.5% 13% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 11% -25.7%
20% -32.0% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,865) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$11 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$1,012
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,316
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $359 $359 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $374 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $2,261 −$4 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $894 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $852 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5,707 −$6 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,478 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,378 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,162 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,508 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $381 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $485 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,182 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,159 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,156 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $71 +$42 +60%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5,275 −$6 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $55 +$60 +109%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,345 −$3 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,343 −$4 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $4,025 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,620 −$3 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $3,943 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $4,517 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $373 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $374 2h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 30h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 31h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $680 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $681 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $483 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $484 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $486 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $487 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $537 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $538 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $893 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $325 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $569 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $851 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $852 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $961 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $962 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $359 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,105 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,106 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.08 · official $359.08 (match) · 516 history records