Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb940…85bf crypto 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-5%) realized −$168 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$13
14 days−$68
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$293
sports 21% +$184
other 9% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 44% +3.6%
≤30d 134 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -14.9%
≤90d 301 +6.4% -3.7% 41% 40% -12.2%
all 313 +6.6% -3.5% 41% 40% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 40% -12.0%
10% -12.8% 37% -20.5%
15% -21.2% 33% -28.1%
20% -28.9% 31% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 186
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions12
Markets (closed)313 / 325
History coverage99d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +156%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $95 +$56 +59%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +113%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$10 -34%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +65%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$18 +204%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$7 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $12 +$12 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$19 +144%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$15 +245%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$6 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$15 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $12 +$7 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$16 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$3 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$7 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$5 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$6 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $50 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $44 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $43 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.30 · official $265.04 (match) · 1030 history records