Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B9 0xb941…b56b sports 672 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,765 (-4%) realized −$7,324 · open −$441
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%321W / 347L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$2,785est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$1,331
14 days+$2,837
30 days−$2,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$10,327
other 1% −$231
world 0% −$82
crypto 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -6.2% -15.1% 53% 43% -3.9%
≤30d 330 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 41% -9.9%
≤90d 557 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 41% -13.7%
all 668 -8.1% -16.8% 48% 42% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -13.3%
10% -24.8% 36% -21.6%
15% -32.0% 29% -29.2%
20% -38.7% 24% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$158 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$7,324
Unrealized−$441
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses321 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,785
Open positions4
Markets (closed)668 / 672
History coverage137d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 62¢ 100¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 64¢ 0¢ $351 $0 −$351 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 32¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $338 +$21 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $887 −$144 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $251 +$238 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 −$71 -32%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $104 +$55 +53%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $170 −$13 -8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $109 −$82 -75%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $133 −$47 -36%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $59 −$38 -65%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $2,044 +$193 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,236 +$264 +21%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,879 +$76 +4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,726 +$216 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $235 +$23 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,824 +$641 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $137 +$174 +127%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $321 −$304 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $94 −$42 -45%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $72 +$9 +12%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $194 −$42 -22%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $88 +$62 +70%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$49 +120%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $165 −$109 -66%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $63 +$27 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $212 −$210 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $156 +$64 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $316 +$500 +158%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$37 +71%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $43 −$9 -20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $216 +$234 +108%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $176 +$14 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $158 −$40 -26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 +$1 +1%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $111 −$94 -84%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $34 +$71 +206%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $56 −$48 -86%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $55 +$13 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $94 +$81 +86%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $89 −$67 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 85¢ $57 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 85¢ $193 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 92¢ $117 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $117 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $64 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $12 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $20 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 81¢ $32 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $335 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $253 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $32 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $323 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 71¢ $256 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 75¢ $103 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $338 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $43 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $1 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $0 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $16 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $23 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $3 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $3 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 34¢ $17 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 61¢ $422 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $425 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.64 · official $84.65 (match) · 2725 history records