Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb941…1619 other 838 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-1%) realized −$118 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%339W / 476L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$4
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$128
world 16% −$137
sports 10% −$54
crypto 9% −$137
politics 6% −$47
finance 5% +$42
tech 4% +$33
culture 3% +$9
weather 3% −$25
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -14.7% -22.8% 39% 39% -17.6%
≤30d 193 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 29% -23.4%
≤90d 463 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 33% -13.1%
all 815 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 31% -11.8%
10% -20.0% 27% -20.2%
15% -27.7% 25% -27.9%
20% -34.8% 21% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses339 / 476
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions20
Markets (closed)815 / 838
History coverage141d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 40¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+371%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 49¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 33¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 53¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+104%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 68¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 42¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 29¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-50%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-79%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Breece Hall be traded? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$7 +351%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal Jun 17 $3 $0 +13%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 +$5 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 +$6 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$16 +744%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 89¢ $15 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $31 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $5 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 86¢ $41 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal SELL 56¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal BUY 48¢ $3 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 34¢ $3 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.38 · official $106.20 (match) · 2413 history records