Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb946…52c9 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1
politics 35% −$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage103d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $79 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $78 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $78 12h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 12d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $78 26d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 29d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $79 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $79 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 38d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 38d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $79 44d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $79 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 45d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 46d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 69d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 70d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 70d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $80 73d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $80 74d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 75d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 75d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $80 79d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 80d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $80 84d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $81 85d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 89d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records