Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B9 0xb94c…730d crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$4
politics 31% +$54
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% +$10
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 +6.0% -4.1% 71% 14% -3.5%
all 38 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage406d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 21¢ 99¢ $15 $71 +$56 (+372%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $24 +$10 +42%
Will Solana dip to $10 March 2-8? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 26? Jan 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Dec 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 23? Dec 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 November 3-9? Dec 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19? Nov 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD? Oct 17 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 17 $850 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 14 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 14 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $860 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 4? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on June 27? Jul 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 26 $55 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 28 $263 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 28 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? May 26 $257 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Artés win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $42 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY No 21¢ $15 15d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY Legacy 70¢ $24 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $12 75d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 87d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 87d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 105d
Will Solana dip to $10 March 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $15 111d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 153d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 155d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 180d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 180d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 180d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 180d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 199d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 199d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 213d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 213d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 213d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 213d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $5 213d
Will Solana reach $220 November 3-9? BUY No 100¢ $8 227d
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $15 249d
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD? SELL No 100¢ $869 249d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 249d
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD? BUY No 100¢ $870 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.03 · official $112.03 (match) · 120 history records