Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb94c…3c05 other 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 774d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$148 (+3%) realized +$146 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%45W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% +$365
other 29% −$101
culture 26% −$94
sports 10% −$23
tech 2% +$38
world 2% +$43
economics 1% −$73
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 35% +22.2%
≤30d 21 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 38% +23.3%
≤90d 54 -58.6% -62.6% 19% 17% -36.3%
all 143 +1.6% -8.0% 31% 28% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 28% -7.0%
10% -16.8% 24% -15.9%
15% -24.9% 22% -24.0%
20% -32.2% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$16 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

774d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses45 / 98
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)143 / 168
History coverage774d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 59¢ $35 $54 +$19 (+53%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $59 $44 −$15 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $53 $39 −$14 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $37 +$18 (+88%)
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 56¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 45¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 63¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $7 $11 +$5 (+69%)
Will Pau Cubarsí win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+126%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Bart Verbruggen win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+190%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Nico Paz win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -42%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 −$2 -10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$3 -29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $11 −$5 -42%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$38 +187%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +154%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $39 +$21 +53%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $158 +$122 +77%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Mar 24 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris be named the 2025 BBC Sports Personality of the Year Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 20 $47 +$10 +20%
Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Barcelona advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Mar 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 60 and 74? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "The Housemaid" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Endrick sign with a new club during the winter transfer window? Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Manager in 2025? Mar 20 $13 −$6 -43%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the second best domestic opening week Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur advance to the round of 16? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Inter Milan finish first in UCL league phase? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 45¢ $7 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 6h
Will Nico Paz win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $20 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 20h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 20h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 20h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $10 20h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $10 20h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 21¢ $6 20h
Will Nico Paz win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.31 · official $329.31 (match) · 816 history records