Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B9 0xb94d…dc31 sports 26 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$11 (+20%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$15
sports 36% +$27
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +58.5% +43.4% 32% 32% +12.7%
≤30d 25 +58.5% +43.4% 32% 32% +12.7%
≤90d 25 +58.5% +43.4% 32% 32% +12.7%
all 25 +58.5% +43.4% 32% 32% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.4% 32% +12.7%
10% +29.6% 28% +2.0%
15% +17.1% 24% -7.9%
20% +5.6% 24% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +88% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +320%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +303%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +980%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +258%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$8 +785%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.98 · official $4.98 (match) · 46 history records