Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb950…4dd4 sports 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 395d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 395d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,483 (-4%) realized −$16,342 · open +$859
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%267W / 405L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$597est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$560
7 days+$1,008
14 days+$1,680
30 days+$1,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$14,898
sports 32% −$5,790
politics 29% +$4,312
other 5% −$1,538
crypto 1% −$1,344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +15.1% +4.1% 45% 45% +1.1%
≤30d 70 +13.8% +2.9% 49% 46% -1.2%
≤90d 268 -5.7% -14.7% 38% 36% -3.0%
all 672 -4.9% -13.9% 40% 35% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 35% -14.0%
10% -22.2% 32% -22.2%
15% -29.7% 29% -29.7%
20% -36.6% 26% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$234 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$2,351
Realized−$16,342
Unrealized+$859
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses267 / 405
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$597
Open positions9
Markets (closed)672 / 682
History coverage395d ⚠
Avg bet$604
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $460 $1,299 +$839 (+182%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 26¢ 100¢ $128 $500 +$371 (+289%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $140 $115 −$25 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 20¢ 1¢ $100 $6 −$94 (-94%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $150 $2 −$148 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $135 −$132 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $3,922 +$1,119 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $38 +$61 +162%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$403 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $607 +$393 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $87 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $245 +$255 +104%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $543 +$850 +156%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $95 +$105 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 19 $218 +$63 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $266 −$266 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $63 +$87 +137%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,013 +$340 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $611 −$406 -66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 −$12 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $141 +$433 +308%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $112 +$110 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $276 +$224 +81%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$84 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $60 +$198 +332%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$33 -32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $134 +$301 +225%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $202 +$110 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 +$282 +276%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$95 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $379 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 26¢ $132 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $135 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 6h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 6h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06 BUY 5¢ $21 41h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $280 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $4,841 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $296 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $61 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $174 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $24 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $122 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $42 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $63 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $810 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $42 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $972 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1,104 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $305 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 37¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,351.38 · official $2,351.38 (match) · 3500 history records