Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb959…7e70 crypto 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-32%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$34
other 23% −$27
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -77.1% -79.3% 20% 20% -76.7%
≤30d 5 -77.1% -79.3% 20% 20% -76.7%
≤90d 27 -32.2% -38.7% 44% 41% -40.1%
all 27 -32.2% -38.7% 44% 41% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 41% -40.1%
10% -44.5% 33% -45.8%
15% -49.9% 19% -51.0%
20% -54.8% 15% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage42d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 09 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 09 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 09 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 06 $5 +$2 +34%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 36d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 38d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 38d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 42d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records