Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb959…3acb sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 23% +$4
politics 22% −$2
economics 7% $0
world 7% −$1
tech 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 162 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage176d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 30 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $124 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $129 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $310 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $125 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $60 5h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $47 14d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 22d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 34d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 42d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 45d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $60 131d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $60 131d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $59 131d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $59 131d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $58 131d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $58 131d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $53 131d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $53 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $55 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $56 131d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 131d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 131d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $59 131d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $59 131d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $8 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $50 131d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $8 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $9 131d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 96¢ $1 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $59 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 477 history records