trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 44% | 11% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 44% | 11% | -7.9% |
| all | 20 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 55% | 10% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.8% | 10% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -15.7% | 5% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 5% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 0% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | $4 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $98 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $18 | $0 | -3% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $92 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $124 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $11 | +$5 | +42% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 16 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump signs national abortion ban? | May 05 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 31 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +0% |