Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb961…4e41 crypto 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,092 (-43%) realized −$3,092 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%109W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$267
14 days−$3,222
30 days−$3,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$323
other 49% −$3,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -4.0% -13.1% 64% 60% -1.7%
≤30d 191 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 54% -50.2%
≤90d 191 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 54% -50.2%
all 191 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 54% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 54% -50.2%
10% -26.1% 50% -54.9%
15% -33.2% 43% -59.3%
20% -39.8% 31% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,092
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses109 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage19d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $413 +$357 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$79 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$38 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$40 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $166 +$89 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$142 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $220 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $190 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $259 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $162 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $83 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records