Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb962…45fe other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$50 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$919per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$160
other 21% −$844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -20.8% -28.4% 36% 18% -13.2%
≤30d 22 -20.8% -28.4% 36% 18% -13.2%
≤90d 22 -20.8% -28.4% 36% 18% -13.2%
all 22 -20.8% -28.4% 36% 18% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 18% -13.2%
10% -35.2% 14% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -41.5% 14% -29.1%
20% -47.2% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,003) neutral
Persistence
early -55% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$180 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$919
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,016 −$766 -38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,015 +$126 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$120 +233%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8,017 +$576 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5,809 +$290 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $595 +$223 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 −$57 -51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $164 −$40 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,003 −$336 -34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,010 −$512 -26%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $498 33m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $404 38m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $342 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $409 41m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $404 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $424 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1,006 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $171 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8,593 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $2,004 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,717 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $6,013 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,099 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $301 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,502 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $4,306 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,208 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 16h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 17h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 17h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 41h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.16 · official $143.16 (match) · 64 history records