Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb969…1d37 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$232 (-24%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 14 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 36% -36.5%
all 14 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 36% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 36% -36.5%
10% -42.3% 29% -42.5%
15% -47.9% 29% -48.1%
20% -53.0% 29% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$66 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage34d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $115 +$20 +17%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 25 $51 +$60 +118%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner May 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $71 +$86 +120%
Valorant: REBORN vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $82 +$58 +71%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $51 +$82 +161%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner May 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $134 −$132 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 23¢ $51 1h
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $64 32d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $71 32d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C SELL K27 100¢ $135 32d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C BUY K27 85¢ $115 32d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In SELL Lilmix 100¢ $111 32d
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 29¢ $31 33d
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur BUY ex-Zero Tenacity 48¢ $71 33d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY Lilmix 45¢ $51 33d
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers SELL NEW VISION 100¢ $157 33d
Valorant: REBORN vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs BUY REBORN 52¢ $69 33d
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 45¢ $71 33d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL ALGO Esports 100¢ $141 33d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ALGO Esports 58¢ $82 33d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se BUY Falcons Force 65¢ $51 33d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series SELL Ursa 100¢ $133 33d
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner BUY NEW VISION 56¢ $61 33d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY Ursa 38¢ $51 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 43¢ $134 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records