Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B9 0xb96b…d05c crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+5%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$215
14 days+$215
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.7% +5.6% 52% 52% +27.8%
≤30d 63 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 46% +1.2%
≤90d 63 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 46% +1.2%
all 63 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 46% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% +1.2%
10% -23.8% 41% -8.5%
15% -31.2% 37% -17.4%
20% -37.9% 30% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage23d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$17 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$19 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$47 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$16 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$36 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$62 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$77 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records