Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B9
0xb96c…4be3
world · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage523d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $44 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 48¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $76 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $3 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $71 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $4 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $164 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $76 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +8%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $52 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $6 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% +$3
politics 27% −$4
other 22% −$3
sports 14% −$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $29 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $36 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $12 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $24 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $22 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $14 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 21 -0.0% -9.6% 48% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 63 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 2% -9.4%
all 70 -2.8% -12.1% 31% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.56 (match) · 278 history records