Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb96d…be0c other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$206 (-27%) realized −$90 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days+$196
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$2
sports 27% +$80
world 9% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.3% +5.2% 33% 33% +54.7%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 29% +24.8%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 29% +24.8%
all 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 29% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 29% +24.8%
10% -18.4% 29% +12.9%
15% -26.3% 29% +2.0%
20% -33.5% 29% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$41 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $133 $82 −$51 (-38%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $66 $1 −$65 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $67 −$65 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $68 +$254 +374%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O Jun 25 $67 +$83 +124%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$66 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.62 · official $82.62 (match) · 15 history records