Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb972…af19 other 40 markets active 1d ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1
other 24% $0
sports 18% −$2
politics 14% +$1
crypto 7% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 71% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.8%
all 40 +0.6% -9.0% 28% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage266d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $56 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $29 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 01 $20 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $8 $0 -1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $7 −$1 -23%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 26 $1 +$1 +63%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $15 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $28 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $7 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $28 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $29 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $23 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $8 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $28 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $29 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records