Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb972…105a sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$342 (-39%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days−$10
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$143
crypto 18% −$9
other 17% −$150
world 8% −$38
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-51.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.1% +20.4% 75% 75% +43.9%
≤30d 37 -41.9% -47.5% 30% 30% -36.8%
≤90d 40 -46.3% -51.4% 28% 28% -47.5%
all 48 -46.3% -51.4% 27% 27% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.4% 27% -47.6%
10% -56.1% 25% -52.6%
15% -60.3% 23% -57.2%
20% -64.2% 21% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage136d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $11 +$12 +114%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $14 +$11 +79%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $21 −$21 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 +$22 +114%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$3 -25%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $60 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Jun 03 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$17 +112%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $15 +$26 +172%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $13 +$23 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $12 +$11 +94%
Red Wings vs. Predators Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $45 −$16 -37%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 05 $10 +$7 +72%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U BUY 26¢ $8 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $3 3h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $23 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 44¢ $15 3h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $11 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $26 4h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $14 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 14¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner BUY NEW VISION 26¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 52¢ $21 10d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $42 10d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY G2 46¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 40¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY FlyQuest 15¢ $8 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 31¢ $8 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 40¢ $10 11d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 15d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 22¢ $20 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ $10 15d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $15 15d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY FlyQuest 31¢ $13 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $22.68 · 86 history records