Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B9 0xb976…8092 crypto 467 markets active 2h ago coverage 753d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$335 (+1%) realized +$336 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate50%229W / 229L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$392
other 9% −$26
sports 4% −$33
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -1.8% -11.1% 28% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 163 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 6% -10.1%
all 458 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 13% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 13% -8.5%
10% -22.2% 6% -17.3%
15% -29.7% 3% -25.3%
20% -36.6% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

753d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$336
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses229 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)458 / 467
History coverage753d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 70¢ 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 -11%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,275 −$3 -0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $17 −$1 -3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 02 $2 $0 +21%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $4 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 1h
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $288 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $299 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $289 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $289 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $290 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $289 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $299 3d
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $3 5d
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $290 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.03 · official $604.03 (match) · 1172 history records